this is a betting affair

Posted by Stats Nerd on November 04, 2006 at 21:31:48

In Reply to: baloney! posted by I am a Nerd (period) on November 04, 2006 at 10:10:10:

Yes, there are always the assumptions you start with. When you do math, you have to be very clear about what those assumptions are.

The way I get this problem, it's not linear (algebraic), but statistical. You're looking at the probability God exists on a 0 to 1 ratio.

On a normal (unbiased) curve there's .015% chance it's 0 (nope!) and a .015% chance it's 1 (yup!). The bias comes in where you decide to put your bet, becuase you (the mathematical sample) are casting the odds: Does it (your basic assumptions) bring you closer to 1 or closer to 0?