In Reply to: Re: Faith & happiness... a study posted by Perry on March 21, 2008 at 12:19:05:
I tend to agree with you...but you know, we all seem to be a little prone to "push" some stats here & there to prove a point which happens to be dear to us.Seldom something is so statistically sound as: all have to die (or being transformed in the last days...permit me that)...or all have to have water/liquid to survive...etc. there are some things/topoi which seem to pertain to all human beings ( the need to rest also) and I believe most human beings wish to be happy & even would like to see others being happy...however that percentage might be lower as to the ones afore mentioned.
Statiticians have & need a job, make use of it, the best they know how and sometimes studies can be framed, tailored to the convictions of the author.There was some researcher, I think Butler
was his name, who pushed the idea, that coloured people were less bright than of caucasian background etc., later that fraud was discovered, but I think it had already some influence on some British laws in the fiftees of last century, if I recall that right.
Take the study about the corporal punishment.
How did they conduct the study.I forgot, don't remember right.Did they ask the people, how severe they were punished?What was the scale, of what is severe, very hard etc.Would some people remember a very mild slap on the bottom, happening at toddler-age or being small?I mean, I am happy, if kids can grow up in a nice serene,
beautiful atmosphere, but that doesn't seem to be the case, as a lot of rich, who had the means, decide often to not have kids and some are "stranded" with kids, not knowing how to cope with the sit. economically.I tend to believe, that a child "sees" the "meaning" of the spanking sooner or later, if it realises, that the parents really love it.Because some spankings might happen rashly, as there is often not the time to explain everything and act everything out in a little theatre piece, to make live/learning lots of fun.
I received very few spankings of my parents & later thought, may be I should have had a sterner father, with severer/clearer yardlines, to prevent my gong astray.
I also hardly ever spanked my kids, don't remember an incident, because they were not "deserving" any...although I got often rougher in tonguelashing, I doubt, that that is very pleasant for the hearer.
I wouldn't want to treat someone I love (mate, which I don't have) with violence, but then I think some situations grow out of severe stress & letting yourself be stressed.I firmly believe in repentance (rethinking) & forgiveness. & that should govern a relationship, be it with kids & or mates.
You & I know that probabilities, statistics, distributions depend on fundamental assumptions.
It works pretty well with "dead" objects, also work-processes, but even then you have only a
scientific "guess".If you roll 6 times a "normal" dice, you should wind up statistically with one 6, something could be wrong with the dice or the surface or the surroundings, hand etc....the more the trials, the more it gets confirmed.One thing is debatable, how much you can conclude from ideal
situations with "dead objects" to something I declare as "spiritcontaining"...something pertaining to "life"...
I guess, materialists have no problems with that, as for them mind is matter...in that case
probability theory should prove "itself"...I have doubts about that.For me surveys are conducted by people, who can never be totally objective, as also the respondants have some bias here & there or misunderstood a question etc.What is most disturbing in many studies, how the draw, the lot, is often not more than a few hundreds, if at all, seldom it goes in the thousands & it is called then often as pretty representative.
With some "glee" I observe the frustration of many demoscopes(I allow myself to use that word, not knowing, whether it exists...no time for the dict. right now...sorry)here in Germany, to forecast the elections in the various regions here, as many voters tend to decide vitually on the last minute, whom to give the vote, as many don't seem to stay true to one party for very long, as before.Forecast,polls need at least some framework to thrive in, one of the very least seems to me, that the asked is in his right mind & doesn't play games, the letter seems hard to decide & therefore many polls seem to allow some fraction of a percent up and down...I am no expert in it, but you see, to me it becomes more difficult, when you shift from probabilities concerning lifeless matter to something "highly developed", as I could call it now.
Recently I heard of a storm, which suddenly had hit an area of the US with hardly any forewarning...how did that happen?...out of the blue sky...that means even in weatherprediction, there are still many grey and black zones...
how much more is that true for the very developed
"areas in life"...life