In Reply to: Re: Berg & Manson posted by OT2 on January 21, 2006 at 13:35:31:
Much depends on how TF defines "member," and this is an extremely contentious issues among SGAs who left, particularly those who left as soon as they could find a way out. They never joined, so why count them as members?
I'm sure the 30-35K number is inflated, but when you do estimation work with statistics, you pretty much have to take what you're given, run some calculations, and see what the results imply.
One thing the 30-35K number implies is that TFI can claim a membership base of about 10,000 for its 35 years of existence. Since about 2/3 of that base has been children born into the group, current birthrates suggest the group will slowly die off unless TFI makes a concerted effort to attract new membership from the outside. Chances of that are slim in the industrialized and developing countries with internet access. Berg, Zerby & TFI are a microcosm of western, industrial social pathology. To the extent TFI successfully attracts sufficient numbers of new indigenous members to regenerate itself, they run the risk of a fundamental change in the perspectives and values of the group within two generations.