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St. Gauss, give this guy a lesson in probability theory

Posted by Stats Nerd on April 29, 2005 at 20:35:03

Xfamily is featuring the website of a nerdy-looking guy that caught my eye until I realized the dumbass can't do simple probability math.

I'm talking about James Arendt, aka, James Japan, of

"Deep truth" (as far as a science nerd is concerned) has to do with testable hypotheses. So James' website is featuring two (N=2) MAJOR predictions of David Berg that have COME TRUE!!!!! Oh, thank you St. Gauss, thou mighty man of math who gavest us a way to test evidence of a prophet's predictive power!!!! Let us now enter into the lab and test the theory of probability.

Evidence provided by Jimmy Japan:

Vision: In November of 1983 David had a dream of a computer chip being inserted into a person!
Fulfillment: Please check out this article "Under Your Skin Computer Chip Has Now Arrived" posted on February 27, 2002 - nearly 20 years after David's vision!

Prediction: Way back in November of 1978 David predicted the actual name of the common currency of Europe!
Fulfillment: The Euro came into being on January 1, 2001, many years before anyone had considered the name "Euro"

OK, here's the problem: That's TWO (N=2) out of how many (X=?) in the total universe of predictions Berg made over his lifetime? If Berg had made a total of 4 predictions, he'd be batting 50% with the two that were correct. 50% correct is called even odds--any one of us can do just as well by flipping a coin. If Berg had made 3 predictions, he'd be batting 75% with the two that made it into the "correct" basket. At a 75% probability of correct predictions, Berg's power as a seer might be more than a fluke--but a sample of three predictions is not a big enough universe (X) to tell us anything other than Berg beat the odds three times out of four.

Does anyone know the total number of predictions Weaselmiester Berg made over the course of his miserable conning existence? 5? 10? 20?

Rather than wade through volumes of Berg's drunken rants and psychotic episodes to count all the predictions, all we need to do is count is four incorrect predictions by in order to show that two correct predictions is LESS than an even odds.

1) California will fall in the ocean very soon--get the hell out of there (1968) Is 30+ years soon enough to justify a mass exodus--?
2) Kohetek is a major comet that portents the destruction of the United States.
3) Gaddhfi is an international statesman who will pave the way for the anti-christ. Hey, the U.N. recognized him as a humanitarian--is that close enough?
4) The Family won't loose it's young people like system churches do because TF's childraising practices are "revolutionary".

Two out of six predictions is a 25% probability--worse odds than flipping a coin. Nope, I'm defintely NOT going to take Grandpa's Ghost to Las Vegas with me this year.

Note to Observer: Technically, I am a nerd. I do science and my social skills are poor enough to get my posts deleted or censored on a regular basis by the site coordinators.