
In Reply to: Suicide Statistics posted by Thorwald on May 11, 2005 at 20:59:31:
I don't understand how how you calculated 2 per 100,000 based on 11 suicides. My estimation foruma per 100,000 ppl works this way:
32,000 former members = the base population of potential suicides
11 suicides = the number of suicides per base population
Results in a base population suicide rate of .000344.
Base population suicide rate of .000344*100,000 general population = 34.4 deaths per 100,000.
That's about twice the world average, right?
I checked out my assumptions and forumula with a colleague (next cubicle to mine), an epidemiologist that calculates suicide rates for for a living. She says I got this right.
There are also some assumptions in your estimation of SGA membership that are highly debatable. My biggest problem is with the estimate of 9,165 SGA members based on the assumption of an average of 5 children per FGA couple. Why 5? Why not 5.8 or 4.5? What is your justification for an average of 5?
The way I would do the estimation: In 1999 the total membership was roughly 13,000 by FMI accounts. 37% of that membership were adults over 18 (N=4810). With 8,190 of the total being under 18, that results in 1.7 children per adult member (8190/4810) or 3.4 children per couple, assuming a 50/50 gender distribution among adults.
I have read somewhere that in 1993, about 2/3 (66%) of TFI were under age 18. By 1999, the percentage was roughly the same (63%).